If current trends continue, nearly one-quarter of the world’s population will be obese by 2045. And one in eight people will have type 2 diabetes, research suggests.
Alongside those bulging waistlines, global rates of type 2 diabetes will jump from 9 percent to 12 percent over the next 22 years, placing an even greater burden on already strained health systems, scientists in Denmark and England reported.
“The global prevalence of obesity and diabetes is projected to increase dramatically unless prevention of obesity is significantly intensified,” according to Dr. Alan Moses, of Novo Nordisk Research and Development in Soborg, Denmark.
“These numbers underline the staggering challenge the world will face in the future in terms of numbers of people who are obese, or have type 2 diabetes, or both,” he added in a news release from the European Congress on Obesity.
In addition to the medical challenges, “the costs to countries’ health systems will be enormous,” Moses said.
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No ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach
For the study, researchers analyzed World Health Organization data for all countries. The investigators divided each population into different groups based on age and body mass index (BMI) in order to calculate the diabetes risk for each year. BMI is a measurement of body fat based on height, weight and gender.
A BMI of 25 to 29.9 is considered overweight and those with a BMI of 30 or more are considered obese; morbidly obese people have a BMI of 44.9 or more.
The researchers reported that global diabetes rates would stabilize only if obesity falls steadily from the current level of 14 percent to slightly more than 10 percent by 2045.
Broken down by country, by 2045 the United States can expect to see obesity rates climb from the current 39 percent to 55 percent, the findings showed. And U.S. diabetes rates will jump from 14 percent to 18 percent if sizable changes aren’t made.
To keep U.S. diabetes rates stable over the next three decades, obesity would have to drop to 28 percent, the researchers said.
Middle-aged people face the greatest health risks
Adult obesity exceeds 30 percent of the population in 20 US states and surpassed 35 percent in three states — Arkansas (35.9 percent), West Virginia (35.7 percent) and Mississippi (35.5 percent). Also, 22 states have rates above 30 percent, 45 states are above 25 percent and every state is above 20 percent.
Obesity has serious health risks. Those who gain a moderate amount of weight (5 to 22 pounds) before the age of 55 have an increased risk of premature death and chronic diseases, according to a study released by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
“Our study is the first of its kind to systematically examine the association of weight gain from early to middle adulthood with major health risks later in life,” senior author Frank Hu, professor of nutrition and epidemiology and chair of the Department of Nutrition, said.
Being overweight or obese is associated with a higher risk of dying prematurely than being a healthier weight — and the risk increases with additional pounds.
Despite the challenge countries are facing with obesity and diabetes, “the tide can be turned,” Moses said. “But it will take aggressive and coordinated action to reduce obesity, and individual cities should play a key role in confronting the issues around obesity.”
Some issues are common to all cities, and others are unique to each of them, Moses added.
Obesity prevention
So what can you do? Fourtanetly, there are a number of things you can do to avoid becoming a part of the nearly one-quarter of people set to become obese by 2045.
The first step is to know the factors that can contribute to your weight:
- Behavior or lifestyle habits, such as lack of physical activity, sedentary behaviors, a poor diet, and poor sleep habits
- Environment, such as where you live and the lifestyle habits within your family
- Economic factors that can influence the foods that you can afford and other lifestyle habits
- Family history and
- Metabolism (the way your body converts food into energy)
The next step is to see a healthcare provider once a year to monitor changes in your body mass index (BMI). It should be noted that Black people have been shown to have lower body fat percentages and higher muscle masses, which may cause the BMI chart to misclassify you. Discuss this with your healthcare provider. He or she can recommend lifestyle changes if your BMI regularly increases.
The last step is implementing the lifestyle changes, which include:
- Consume less “bad” fat and more “good” fat: A 2017 study published in the Nutrition Journal shows that intake of healthy dietary fats, such as polyunsaturated fats, can improve cholesterol levels and reduce obesity risk.
- Consume less processed and sugary foods: According to a 2016 study published in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, consumption of processed and ultra-processed foods is linked to a higher risk of obesity. Many processed foods are high in fat, salt, and sugar, which can encourage overeating.
- Eat more servings of vegetables and fruits: The daily recommendation for fruit and vegetable intake is five to nine servings per day for adults. Try to fill your plate with veggies and fruit. This can help keep calories reasonable and reduce the risk of overeating.
- Eat plenty of dietary fiber: Studies continue to show that dietary fiber plays a role in weight maintenance. In fact, one 2012 trial found that people who took a fiber complex supplement three times daily for 12 weeks lost up to 5 percent of their body weight.
- Focus on eating low–glycemic index foods: The glycemic index (GI) is a scale used to measure how quickly a food item will raise your blood sugar. Focusing on low-GI foods can help keep blood sugar levels steadier. Keeping your blood glucose levels steady can help with weight management.
- Get the family involved in your journey: Support and getting people involved in your health journey goes a long way whether you are cooking with family or going on walks with friends.
- Engage in regular aerobic activity: Incorporating regular physical activity into your schedule is important for maintaining or losing weight and a host of other benefits. The CDC recommends 150 minutes of moderate aerobic activity or 75 minutes of vigorous aerobic activity per week.
- Incorporate a weight training regimen: Weight training and aerobic activity is key to weight maintenance as aerobic activity. The WHO recommends weight training that involves all your major muscles at least two times per week.
- Focus on reducing daily stress: A 2012 study suggests that stress may trigger a brain response that changes eating patterns and leads to cravings for high-calorie foods. Eating too many high-calorie foods can contribute is a contributing factor to the development of obesity.
- Learn how to food budget and meal prep: Grocery shopping for healthy foods is much easier when you have a plan. Additionally, having a budget and list for your shopping trips will help you avoid the urge to buy unhealthy foods.
If you have tried everything on this list and are still struggling with weight issues, you may need to consult with your doctor for additional help such as weight loss medications.