Despite the increase in cases, dozens of states have moved to reopen, with governors relaxing restrictions on many businesses like restaurants and gyms. With millions of young Americans traveling for spring break, there are concerns that the virus could spread further and be brought to other states when travelers return home.
Experts say with many of the most at-risk Americans dosed, this potential wave may not be as lethal or significant as previous ones.
“With a large proportion of the vulnerable individuals now vaccinated, that fourth wave in cases may not translate into a fourth wave in deaths,” Baker said.
Even if a fourth wave is “likely,” Sehgal said, “I don’t think it will be anywhere near the magnitude of the wave like we saw after the winter holidays, nor as deadly.”
4th wave may be controlled by Vaccination expansion
Further expansion of vaccinations can play a key role in controlling a potential fourth wave. The CDC reports, as of Saturday, 27.6% of the total U.S. population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, and 15.1% of the population is fully vaccinated.
Forty-seven states and Washington, D.C. have either already expanded vaccine eligibility to all residents over the age of 16 or have announced plans to do so in the coming weeks, in alignment with President Joe Biden’s May 1 eligibility deadline.
“I am encouraged by the rate of vaccination — even in my most optimistic moments I didn’t expect we’d be averaging nearly 2.5 million doses per day, and protecting the most vulnerable means that fewer new cases will result in hospitalizations and deaths as compared to earlier surges,” Sehgal said.
However, there are still segments of the population that are awaiting inoculation. Not all seniors have been vaccinated, and there are Americans with preexisting health conditions who are at risk of severe illness, but are not yet eligible for a shot.
“We still have vulnerable segments of our population across all age groups that have yet to be vaccinated. While this surge may not be at the same scale, the rise of B.1.1.7 and rapid reopening, we will contribute to avoidable hospitalizations and deaths,” Brownstein said.
“Any uptick in cases means more worry for those groups,” added Sehgal.
And while these vaccines do offer protection against the new variants, “for the unvaccinated this may represent a higher risk. Time and time again, we find that the risk of future outbreaks is really tied to the strength of control measures we have in place,” Baker said. “In regions of the U.S. with lower vaccination coverage, stepping back from social distancing measures too quickly will elevate the likelihood of a fourth wave.”
In conclusion, although states are lifting their protocols with mask wearing and social distancing, and more people are getting vaccinated, it is in fact the responsibility of each individual to maintain those protective guidelines that have been in place since spring of 2020 to help prevent a fourth surge. Personal responsibility can collectively make a difference.