In many cancer clinical trials, researchers determine success by whether a tumor shrinks or stops growing for a period. Although that can be an encouraging sign, it doesn’t always translate into better survival outcomes or quality of life for cancer patients.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is currently drafting new guidance that calls for all cancer drug trials to focus more on overall survival—how long patients actually live—rather than relying so heavily on surrogate markers like tumor shrinkage.
This shift in clinical trials could have significant benefits, particularly for Black cancer patients who often face higher death rates than many other groups. By prioritizing real-life outcomes, the FDA is pushing drug development toward what truly matters: giving people more time and a better quality of life.
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Why Tumor Shrinkage Isn’t Enough
In cancer research, surrogate markers (also known as surrogate endpoints) are measurable indicators (e.g., blood pressure or cholesterol) used in trials to predict a more significant, but less easily measured clinical outcome (e.g., stroke or heart attack). Surrogate markers like tumor shrinkage or progression-free survival have been used to speed up trials. They allow researchers to measure a drug’s effects quickly, rather than waiting years to track overall survival.
But there’s a downside to this method. Tumor shrinkage doesn’t always indicate better survival outcomes. A treatment may seem effective in tests but may fail to improve survival or come with undesirable side effects that outweigh its short-term benefits. Cancer patients and families want more time together—not just promising numbers on a chart.
With the FDA encouraging researchers to measure outcomes that matter most, it is addressing a gap that has long frustrated patients, families, and advocates alike.
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What the FDA’s New Guidance Means
The draft guidance emphasizes overall survival as the “gold standard” for evaluating the efficacy and safety of cancer drugs. Surrogate markers are still important, but the government agency is signaling that they should no longer be the sole basis for drug approval.
So, what does this mean? Researchers in drug clinical trials will be required to design and implement larger studies that follow patients over extended periods. While this will slow down the pace of approved drugs, it also means that the treatments that go public are more likely to have a greater impact on patients.
Simply put, the FDA is pushing for a higher standard—not just temporary tumor responses, but proven life extensions.
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Why It Matters for Black Communities
This change in drug trials could be especially impactful for Black Americans, who often face worse outcomes when it comes to cancer. Across many types of cancer—such as breast, prostate, and colorectal—Black patients experience higher death rates than their white counterparts. Factors include barriers to care, delayed diagnosis, and underrepresentation in clinical trials.
When trials shift their primary focus to survival rather than surrogate markers, the data will show much more clearly which treatments actually help extend life across diverse patient groups. That makes it even more crucial to recruit and include Black patients in research, ensuring that the results accurately reflect the realities of all communities.
Designing trials with survival outcomes as the primary goal could help build trust in the medical system and lead to more equitable outcomes.
Patient-Centered Outcomes: Beyond Survival
Living longer is typically the end goal for most patients undergoing cancer treatment—but so is living well. Clinical trials should also measure patient-reported outcomes, such as fatigue, pain, or the ability to return to work. A drug that extends life but leaves someone too weak to enjoy that time doesn’t fully meet a patient’s needs.
By prioritizing survival while also encouraging broader measures of quality of life, the FDA’s guidance opens the door to a more holistic view of success in cancer care.
