U.S. Murder Rate Up 30% During Pandemic, Highest One-Year Rise Ever

The rate at which homicide is taking the lives of Americans jumped by 30% over the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic — the largest year-to-year increase ever, new federal government figures show. The rate jumped from 6 homicides per 100,000 people in 2019 to 7.8 per 100,000 in 2020, according to provisional data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Black men and boys continue to face the highest overall risk of homicide, with at least 2,400 additional Black men and boys killed in 2020 compared with 2019, according to homicide data reported to the FBI.

What the statistics show

The previous largest year-to-year increase was a 20% increase from 2000 to 2001, and that rise was largely driven by the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks, when nearly 3,000 people perished.

The statistics released by the FBI also show a large increase in the number of Black women and girls being killed. At least four Black women and girls were murdered per day in the United States in 2020.

The new data does not break down how murders are being committed, but the CDC says that provisional data on firearm injury death rates show an increase in firearm deaths from 11.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 13.6 per 100,000 in 2020 — a 14% increase.

What role does COVID play?

How much of the uptick in murders can be blamed on the pandemic and its stressors? One psychiatrist believes COVID-19 fears and lockdowns have played a key role.

Although it's unclear whether the alarming number of homicides among Black women is due to domestic violence, rising community violence or other factors, there are a few factors that may have contributed:

widespread access to firearms
barriers to access of preventive services and mental healthcare

These factors in conjunction with the unequal way that coronavirus affected Americans of color played a major role in the way the pandemic

worsened the violence among Black women, many of whom were essential workers and had to leave their homes for work.

"The pandemic disrupted our daily lives abruptly and to an unprecedented extent, causing changes in everything from physical activity to patterns of socialization, which have then had physiological as well as emotional/psychological effects," Dr. Timothy Sullivan, chair of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Staten Island University Hospital says.

As people lost jobs, financial strains came to the fore, too.

"The economic consequences of the pandemic greatly increased strain on families, but disproportionately, so that suffering, while widespread, was especially great for some," Sullivan adds. He also points to statistics showing a rise in substance abuse and a steady rise in incidents of domestic violence over the past 18 months.

"This volatile combination of emotional, financial and physical stress, combined with substance use and the too-ready availability of handguns in our society — which has been shown to increase the likelihood of shooting deaths associated with intimate partner violence — could understandably lead to an increased homicide rate," Sullivan believes.

The new figures didn't come as a surprise to one emergency medicine doctor.

"Emergency physicians are continuing to follow an increasingly worrisome upward trend in violence in the United States over the past year," Dr. Teresa Murray Amato shares.

"It is unclear what impact the pandemic has had on these trends and more research will need to be done to better understand why this is happening," according to Amato, who directs emergency medicine at Long Island Jewish Forest Hills, in New York City.

The NCHS findings on the sharp rise in homicide rates between 2019 and 2020 are consistent with

recent findings by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The CDC stressed that even though the recent uptick in murders is startling, Americans today still have lower odds of dying from homicide than they did in decades past.

Although the homicide rate during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic is the highest since 1995, it is still significantly lower than rates in the early 1980s, the CDC notes. During those years, U.S. homicides averaged more than 10 per 100,000 people.

Follow-up analyses from the NCHS will offer more insight on the 2020 increases in homicide, including how they're committed, demographic details and state-level information, the CDC team shares.

How to protect yourself

Although there is still much to be done to prevent homicides, there are a number of measures you can take to protect yourself:

Avoid dangerous places and people
Be aware of your surroundings
Use a buddy system
Stick to populated and well-lit areas
Keep your cell phone easily accessible and charged
Keep belongings secure. Avoid wearing flashy jewelry or handling money
Avoid distractions
Communicate plans to friends and family
Don’t look like a tourist and command a presence
Stay sober

If you do experience a life-threatening encounter, remember the following:

Draw attention to yourself
Use any accessible weapons
Aim for weak points
Always call the police, if possible
Comply with the predator's demands
Never go anywhere with a predator or give them access to private time with you or your family

Lastly, remember that the law grants you the right to defend yourself from any damage to you or your property.