Nearly One-Quarter of the World Will be Obese by 2045

If current trends continue, nearly one-quarter of the world’s population will have obesity by 2045. And one in eight people will have type 2 diabetes, an International Diabetes Federation (IDF) study suggests (International Diabetes Federation, 2017)¹.

In addition, global diabetes-related healthcare costs are projected to reach $1.1 trillion annually, with obesity acting as a significant contributor, placing an even greater burden on already strained health systems, IDF reported.

According to the IDF and the World Obesity Federation, obesity significantly drives type 2 diabetes prevalence. Current projections indicate that by 2045, over 22% of the global population could be living with obesity, contributing to an estimated one in eight people having type 2 diabetes. The IDF highlights that addressing obesity is essential for controlling diabetes rates, as obesity accounts for nearly 43% of type 2 diabetes cases worldwide. This situation demands a multi-sectoral approach targeting prevention, policy changes, and better access to healthcare to mitigate these trends

No ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach

In this current study we present, researchers analyzed World Health Organization data for all countries. The investigators divided each population into different groups based on age and body mass index (BMI) in order to calculate the diabetes risk for each year. BMI is a calculation used to estimate a person’s body fat based on their height and weight, essentially providing a measure of whether they are at a healthy weight for their stature.

A BMI of 25 to 29.9 is considered overweight and those with a BMI of 30 or more are considered obese; morbidly obese people have a BMI of 44.9 or more.

The researchers reported that global diabetes rates would stabilize only if obesity falls steadily from the current level of 14 percent to slightly more than 10 percent by 2045.

Broken down by country, by 2045 the United States can expect to see obesity rates climb from the current 39 percent to 55 percent, the findings showed. And U.S. diabetes rates will jump from 14 percent to 18 percent if sizable changes aren’t made.

“To keep U.S. diabetes rates stable over the next three decades, obesity would have to drop to 28 percent”, the researchers said.

Middle-aged people face the greatest health risks

Adult obesity exceeds 30 percent of the population in 20 U.S. states and surpassed 35 percent in three states — Arkansas (35.9 percent), West Virginia (35.7 percent) and Mississippi (35.5 percent). Also, 22 states have rates above 30 percent, 45 states are above 25 percent, and every other state is above 20 percent.

Obesity has serious health risks. Those who gain a moderate amount of weight (5 to 22 pounds) before the age of 55 have an increased risk of premature death and chronic diseases, according to a study released by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (Zheng et al., 2017)².

“Our study is the first of its kind to systematically examine the association of weight gain from early to middle adulthood with major health risks later in life,” senior author Frank Hu, professor of nutrition and epidemiology and chair of Harvard’s Department of Nutrition, said.

Having obesity or overweight is associated with a higher risk of dying prematurely than being a healthier weight — and the risk increases with additional pounds, according to a study, conducted by the Global BMI Mortality Collaboration and published in The Lancet (Global BMI Mortality Collaboration, 2016)³.

Despite the challenge countries are facing with obesity and diabetes, the tide can be turned.

“We have seen an alarming rise in diabetes over the past three decades, which reflects the increase in obesity, compounded by the impacts of the marketing of unhealthy food, a lack of physical activity and economic hardship. To bring the global diabetes epidemic under control, countries must urgently take action. This starts with enacting policies that support healthy diets and physical activity, and, most importantly, health systems that provide prevention, early detection, and treatment,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) said.

Obesity prevention

So, what can you do? Fortunately, there are a number of things you can do to avoid becoming a part of the nearly one-quarter of people set to become obese by 2045.

The first step is to know the factors that can contribute to your weight:

Behavior or lifestyle habits, such as lack of physical activity, sedentary behaviors, a poor diet, and poor sleep habits
Environment, such as where you live and the lifestyle habits within your family
Economic factors that can influence the foods that you can afford and other lifestyle habits
Family history and genetics
Metabolism (the way your body converts food into energy)

The next step is to see a healthcare provider once a year to monitor changes in your BMI. It should be noted that Black people have been shown to have lower body fat percentages and higher muscle masses, which may cause the BMI chart to misclassify you. Discuss this with your healthcare provider. He or she can recommend lifestyle changes if your BMI regularly increases.

The last step is implementing the lifestyle changes, which include:

Consume less “bad” fat and more “good” fat: A 2017 study published in the Nutrition Journal shows that intake of healthy dietary fats, such as polyunsaturated fats, can improve cholesterol levels and reduce obesity risk.
Consume less processed and sugary foods: According to a 2016 study published in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, consumption of processed and ultra-processed foods is linked to a higher risk of obesity. Many processed foods are high in fat, salt, and sugar, which can encourage overeating.
Eat more servings of vegetables and fruits: The daily recommendation for fruit and vegetable intake is five to nine servings per day for adults. Try to fill your plate with veggies and fruit. This can help keep calories reasonable and reduce the risk of overeating.
Eat plenty of dietary fiber: Studies continue to show that dietary fiber plays a role in weight maintenance. In fact, one 2012 trial found that people who took a fiber complex supplement three times daily for 12 weeks lost up to 5 percent of their body weight.
Focus on eating low-glycemic index foods: The glycemic index (GI) is a scale used to measure how quickly a food item will raise your blood sugar. Focusing on low-GI foods can help keep blood sugar levels steadier. Keeping your blood glucose levels steady can help with weight management.
Get the family involved in your journey: Support and getting people involved in your health journey goes a long way whether you are cooking with family or going on walks with friends.
Engage in regular aerobic activity: Incorporating regular physical activity into your schedule is important for maintaining or losing weight and a host of other benefits. The CDC recommends 150 minutes of moderate aerobic activity or 75 minutes of vigorous aerobic activity per week.
Incorporate a weight training regimen: Weight training and aerobic activity is key to weight maintenance as aerobic activity. The WHO recommends weight training that involves all your major muscles at least two times per week.
Focus on reducing daily stress: A 2012 study suggests that stress may trigger a brain response that changes eating patterns and leads to cravings for high-calorie foods. Eating too many high-calorie foods can be a contributing factor to the development of obesity.
Learn how to budget food and meal prep: Grocery shopping for healthy foods is much easier when you have a plan. Additionally, having a budget and list for your shopping trips will help you avoid the urge to buy unhealthy foods.

If you have tried everything on this list and are still struggling with weight issues, you may need to consult with your doctor for additional help such as weight loss medications.

International Diabetes Federation. IDF Diabetes Atlas. 8th ed., 2017, diabetesatlas.org.
Zheng, Yujing, et al. “Association of Weight Gain from Early to Middle Adulthood with Major Health Outcomes Later in Life.” JAMA, vol. 318, no. 3, 2017, pp. 255–269, doi:10.1001/jama.2017.7092.
Global BMI Mortality Collaboration. “Body-Mass Index and All-Cause Mortality: Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis of 239 Prospective Studies in Four Continents.” The Lancet, vol. 388, no. 10046, 2016, pp. 776–786, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30175-1.

By Jason Henderson, BDO Staff Writer | Published March 21, 2023