The U.S. Supreme Court is on the verge of striking down the landmark Roe v Wade ruling, a leaked draft opinion shows.
In the draft opinion, a majority of the court voted to overturn the 1973 decision that granted abortion rights to all American women.
This is the first time in the Supreme Court's history that an early draft opinion has been leaked before the final decision was announced, and they often change before the court's decision is announced, the Times notes. The Supreme Court is expected to issue its final opinion in late June or early July.
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If the court's final decision does match the leaked opinion, it would represent a massive shift in the U.S. with potential health risks for pregnant women.
What happens if Roe v. Wade is overturned?
1. A rise in maternal deaths
Roughly half of U.S. states are expected to ban abortion if Roe v. Wade is overturned, mostly in the South and Midwest, according to the Times. Without access to legal abortion, illegal and dangerous abortions are likely to continue, with the burden likely disproportionately falling on poor women who can't drive to other states for the procedure and women of color.
"There are going to be women that will die from pregnancy because of this decision, period," says Dr. Amy Addante, an OBGYN in Illinois and a fellow with Physicians for Reproductive Health.
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"One of the things that I worry about the most is that we are going to see an increase in maternal deaths in this country" if Roe is overturned, says Lauren Ralph, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco.
One study published last year found that although most U.S. states had similar rates of maternal mortality in 1995, states that restricted abortion access had significantly higher rates by 2017 than those with more protective policies.
The U.S. maternal mortality rate in 2020 was 23.8 deaths per 100,000 live births — the highest it had been since before Roe was overturned, according to the Commonwealth Fund, which promotes better health care for underserved communities. For Black people, the rate is 55.3 deaths (nearly three times the rate for white people).
2. Risk of pregnancy-related complications
The U.S. has the highest maternal mortality rate. About 700 women die every year of pregnancy-related complications in the U.S., and about 3 in 5 of those deaths are preventable, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Research suggests that denying women abortions can lead to a higher risk of pregnancy-related complications because of an increased likelihood of delaying prenatal care.
"Unintended pregnancies are at higher risk for medical complications, which can extend beyond once the baby is delivered," Dr. Amy Addante, an OBGYN in Illinois and a fellow with Physicians for Reproductive Health says.
A five-year research project at the Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health at the University of California, San Francisco, called The Turnaway Study, which looked at 1,000 women who sought abortions across 30 facilities in the U.S. found that women who were denied abortions had more serious health problems, such as high blood pressure or seizures than those who had abortions. Additionally, two women who were denied abortions died from conditions related to their pregnancies.
"We can definitely say that if these people had been able to get the care that they wanted, those maternal deaths would have been avoided," Ralph, one of the study's researchers notes.
3. Prosecution
If a pregnant woman seeks to end her pregnancy in a state where abortion is banned, she faces the risk of prosecution.
4. Financial hardship
Research shows that unwanted pregnancies cause several harmful and long-term consequences for mothers, including a higher chance of financial hardship and a severe toll on mental health. According to research, a group of women that was denied abortions experienced greater bankruptcies, evictions and debt than other people who received their wanted abortion. The financial hardship also extends to the children of pregnant women seeking to get an abortion to continue providing for the children they already have. Children of pregnant women seeking an abortion were more likely to live in poverty, and less likely to achieve developmental milestones than the children whose mothers were able to get an abortion, according to research.
Research has suggested that overturning Roe would reduce the number of legal abortions by around 14 percent, according to the Times. Many states would still provide the procedure, and some are taking steps to help women in states that ban it. But women who cannot travel will be left with few options: Ordering pills online, conducting dangerous procedures themselves, or going through with the birth.
