The U.S. Supreme Court is on the verge of striking down the landmark Roe v Wade ruling, a leaked draft opinion shows.
In the draft opinion, a majority of the court voted to overturn the 1973 decision that granted abortion rights to all American women.
This is the first time in the Supreme Court’s history that an early draft opinion has been leaked before the final decision was announced, and they often change before the court’s decision is announced, the Times notes. The Supreme Court is expected to issue its final opinion in late June or early July.
If the court’s final decision does match the leaked opinion, it would represent a massive shift in the U.S. with potential health risks for pregnant women.
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What happens if Roe v. Wade is overturned?
1. A rise in maternal deaths
Roughly half of U.S. states are expected to ban abortion if Roe v. Wade is overturned, mostly in the South and Midwest, according to the Times. Without access to legal abortion, illegal and dangerous abortions are likely to continue, with the burden likely disproportionately falling on poor women who can’t drive to other states for the procedure and women of color.
“There are going to be women that will die from pregnancy because of this decision, period,” says Dr. Amy Addante, an OBGYN in Illinois and a fellow with Physicians for Reproductive Health.
“One of the things that I worry about the most is that we are going to see an increase in maternal deaths in this country” if Roe is overturned, says Lauren Ralph, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco.
One study published last year found that although most U.S. states had similar rates of maternal mortality in 1995, states that restricted abortion access had significantly higher rates by 2017 than those with more protective policies.
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The U.S. maternal mortality rate in 2020 was 23.8 deaths per 100,000 live births — the highest it had been since before Roe was overturned, according to the Commonwealth Fund, which promotes better health care for underserved communities. For Black people, the rate is 55.3 deaths (nearly three times the rate for white people).
2. Risk of pregnancy-related complications
The U.S. has the highest maternal mortality rate. About 700 women die every year of pregnancy-related complications in the U.S., and about 3 in 5 of those deaths are preventable, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Research suggests that denying women abortions can lead to a higher risk of pregnancy-related complications because of
